Scroll Baiting?

[fwaggle]

Originally Posted by happylight

By definition you cannot guess the next number out of a pseudo-random number generator given all previous numbers with probability larger than random guessing! This means if you can actually predict a PRNG without the seed... it's not a PRNG!

Not entirely true - if a weak PRNG outputs all random numbers to an observable place, and you can make a rough guess as to how it's seeded, you can predict the output of a weak PRNG.

Now factor in PRNGs which are cryptographically secure (probably irrelevant in MapleStory's case) and it's pretty freakin' tough to guess the output. For example some UNIX-like OSes will ask the operator to hammer the keyboard for a bit, some other crypto-apps will ask you to squiggle the mouse for a few seconds. If you take that initial entropy and manage it well, complimenting it with, say input from interrupts or raw data from the network, a computer (which is by definition a deterministic device) can make a pretty good attempt at a real random number.

But this is all irrelevant in the case of MapleStory, because as I keep repeating, the other people on the server doing random events are a pretty reasonable source of entropy - even if you could guess the sequence (let's go one step easier, simple "pass-fail-pass-fail-pass-fail" pattern) you still couldn't guarantee where in the sequence you are for a given scroll.

[Illusionist]

This is what the C++ STL uses for it's rand() function.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linear_...tial_generator

You don't need the seed. You only need 3 consecutive outputs to predict all previous and future outputs.

But this doesn't help you in scrolling; You will never know what the exact number is at the first place.

So much baseless claims in the thread, stop please unless you know what you are talking about.

[elnoria]

Originally Posted by Fthr33

Please re-read my post. I clearly said I'm not looking for a hit after so many failures. I'm simply trying to get myself back to that equilibrium after a bunch of successes. Long-term probablility os different than short-term. This isn't a get every scroll to land successfully type of theory. Simply a way to get the corrections out of the way that are bound to happen over the course of hundreds of trials. I can't stress that enough since you missed it the first time. Long-term probability.

This is actually a very common misunderstanding in statistics. There is no such thing as equilibrium in a set of random data, or corrections to get out of the way. Oh, and expecting a failure to restore "equilibrium" after a string of successes is no different from expecting a success after a string of failures.

If you count a head as a 1 and a tail as a 0 and then flip the coin 100,000 times your average will come out very close to 0.5, but it would be statistically unusual to not have a run of 30 heads or 30 tails somewhere in that data. That is actually part of how statisticians check data for tampering.

[LarryNL]

Originally Posted by Zap

You cant say what people believe is "fake".
If these methods work one for person then good for them.
Just because if you tried it and the method was a failure then let it go.
Things like "lucky rooms" just boost people's confidence on that it will work.

I can say these methods are fake because they are. If you believe "dummy scrolling" improves the success rate of the next scroll your an idiot. I never tried it, because there is no point in trying it. It doesn't matter where you scroll, how you scroll, or when you scroll. The success rate wont change.

"Lucky rooms" and things like this may boost people's confidence but it won't boost the actual success yet.

I don't understand how you people can't see this.

[tjlee87]

it seems to me that it is pointless to try to preach to the mass about the myth of dummy scrolling...
i mean its is so ridiculous to see how such a simple concept can become so distorted to someone that they believe these scrolls can simply change its percentage just because of previous scroll records.

i mean even a 5th grader can understand this: its like flipping a coin, you got tail, and you still have 50/50 chance of getting head next round no matter how many times you failed previously. this same concept applies to 10/30/50/60/70% scrolls as well (in 10/30/50/60/70% respectably).

anyway lets put an end to this thread already, we are not dealing with university level statistic here... if someone wants to believe this myth, let them believe it. since its their money let them waste however they want and learn the lesson the hard way.